Visibility of Shawwal's Crescent
(1419 AH)

Adopting the actual sighting of the crescent, Ramadan this year had to start on either; Sunday or Monday (20 or 21 December 1998). However, some countries had started Ramadan on Saturday (19 December). The real problem which will happen is that: Even if Ramadan was started on Sunday (20 December), it should be 30 days, where the crescent is impossible to be seen on 29 Ramadan 1419 AH (17 January). But as these countries started Ramadan on Saturday (19 December), so this will turn Ramadan to be 31 days !!! But for sure the lunar (Islamic) months are either 29 or 30 days. This means those countries which had started Ramadan on Saturday (19 December) will miss one day of Ramadan. Anyway, this is not the first year we face this problem. Such problem happened in several years ago !!

The geocentric new moon of Shawwal 1419 AH will occur on Sunday 17 January 1999 at 15:46 UT, and for sure the search for the crescent is done on 29 Ramadan. Below are the possibilities of seeing the crescent on such days in different countries:-

* Saturday 16 January 1999: In some countries including the Gulf countries and Jordan, 29 Ramadan 1419 AH will be on Saturday 16 January. It is quit clear that the crescent will not be seen on this day from anywhere on Earth, because the Moon didn't reach the conjunction yet, and because the crescent will set before the Sun from any area on Earth (Except where both; the Sun and the Moon do not set in such time). In addition, Saudi's criteria won't be satisfied on this day, and so it seems that Saudi won't declare seeing the crescent on this day, and it will fast 30 days, and so all the other "followers" will do the same. I guess, no country will start Al-Eid on 17 January.

This time the meetings didn't last for a long time, most of the time they discussed the wrong beginning of Ramadan in Jordan; The astronomers insisted on their position, and brought many evidences that we started Ramadan wrong, on the other hand most of the Islam scientists (unfortunately the important scientists) insisted on their position too, and said that if Saudi said that they saw the crescent, Jordan will follow it, because both are near each other, regardless to the reality of this claim !! Really strange !! I wonder how can we follow any country if we are sure that they didn't see the crescent ! Anyway, Jordan at last declared that tomorrow 17 January is 30 Ramadan, and Shawwal will begin on 18 January 1999.

On Monday only the crescent was seen in India, Pakistan, Saudi and South Africa.

Sunday 17 January

The crescent is impossible to be seen by naked eyes anywhere on Earth on this day. However, a VERY professional accurate TELESCOPIC observation might glimpse the crescent ONLY in the most western part of USA. But this didn't happen, and so the crescent was not seen at all from anywhere on Earth on Sunday 17 January.

• Egypt: 'Mufti' of Egypt said clearly that the crescent was not seen by any observing committee in Egypt, nor by any other person in Egypt on Sunday 17 January. However, he announced that the next day Monday 18 January is the first day of Al-Eid, since the the crescent was sighted in the Western Arabic countries, and some other Arabic countries ! But I wonder, in which Western Arabic country the crescent was seen ! Both, Libya and Algeria started Al-Eid on Monday because they completed 30 days of Ramadan, as they had started Ramadan one day before Egypt. While Tunisia and Morocco did NOT start Al-Eid on Monday, they did complete 30 days of Ramadan and started Al-Eid on Tuesday. So we conclude that none of the previous countries saw the crescent on Sunday !! Anyway, kindly find below a part of an Egyptian official newspaper (Al-Ahram), which was issued on Monday !
  

• Nigeria: ICOP member, Mr. Alabi Isiaq, sent a report, that indicates that the sky was clear, but the crescent was not seen.

• Morocco: The crescent was not seen on Sunday in Morocco, kindly find below an E-mail from Dr. Hamid Touma:-

  Dear Mohammad Odeh

  Assalamo Alaykoum

  Aid Al fitre Mabrouk.

  I am pleased to inform you that the first day Shawwal in my country was on 19 January 1999, as I have mentioned in my last E-mail. So the end of Ramadan was the 18 January, and the first day of Shawwal was 19 January 1999. This year, Ramadan was 30 days, instead of 29 days.

  Sincerely yours

  Dr TOUMA Hamid
  Astrophysical Unity,
  National Research Centre (CNCPRST)
  

• UK: The crescent was not seen on Sunday in UK also, please find below an E-mail from Dr. Monzur Ahmed:

  Asslamu aliakum,

  In Birmingham, UK and elsewhere in UK, the crescent was not seen on 17th Jan 1999.

  However, some Muslims in UK will be doing Eid on Monday 18th Jan following the Saudi announcement. Many will be doing Eid on Tuesday.

  Wasalaam.

  Dr. Monzur Ahmed

Monday 18 January

Mr. Yasser Abdel-Hadi of the National Research Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics (Helwan Observatory), sent JAS the below E-mail.

Dear Mr. M. Odeh,

Assalmu Alykom,
According to the astronomical calculations made in our institute, the first day of Shawwal 1419 will be Tuesday 19 January 1999. It is also true for all Islamic countries in our neighborhood. I am writing you this mail while I am preparing myself to share in the team of visibility of the crescent in a location among the several ones covering all over my country. Hopefully we can get a good results. Congratulations for Eid El- Fetr.

Yours
Yasser Abdel-Hadi.
National Research Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics.
Helwan Observatory.

Dr. Omar Afzal, the chairman of Committee for Crescent Observation sent JAS the below E-mail:-

Dear Odeh,

Please arrange for a moonwatch on January 17, 18 and 19. It is very important as it will prove beyond doubt that:

1. A crescent CANNOT be seen before the conjunction. (Conjunction on January 17, 1999 is after the moon has passed Middle East)
2. A crescent cannot be seen unless it has moved away from the Sun to around 11.5 degrees at an altitude of 9.5 degrees+.
3. Completing 30 days from a wrong date does not mean Ramadan is 'completed'. In ME it will be complete most likely on Monday at sunset, making Tuesday as the day of Eid. In Kuwait, UAE and farther east the day of Eid should be Wednesday, January 20 as Shawwal crescent may not be visible there even on Monday.

The only possible date for Eid al-Fitr in N. America, according to the Qura'n (2:189) and Sunnah (...La Tuftiru Hatta Tarauhu..."Don't stop fasting unless you see it ..." is Tuesday, January 19, 1999.

The Conjunction is on January 17 and on the west coast of the US the moon is less than 10 hours old, etc. It cannot be seen even in Hawaii or on January 18 from New Zealand to Pakistan. Shawwal moon would be visible from Makkah (??) onwards on January 18 only (NEVER on Sunday January 17). Hence Eid al-Fitr in the USA should be on Tuesday, January 19.

Remember when the Messenger (SAW) asked us to 'SEE a crescent" he was not telling us to ask the Jews in Medina about the NEW MOON which they could calculate for thousands of years. Or start the month by mere 'knowledge' of the time of Conjunction. He told us to use our 'EYES' to see it. Muslim Ummah was neither blind nor living underground, nor had telephone to call home or radio/TV to get the news , etc.)

Dr. Omar Afzal
Chairman Committee for Crescent Observation Intl.

Dr. Hamid Touma of the Astrophysical Laboratory, National Research Centre (CNCPRST) in Morocco, sent us the below E-mail:-

Dear Mohammed ODEH

Theoretically the Crescent of the old Moon (Ramadan) will be visible on 16 January 1999, before the New Moon in the South-East direction 30 minutes before sunrise. And the geocentric New Moon will be on 17 January 1999 at 15h 47m 08s (TDT). As you know we must wait 20 hours at least to see the first Crescent of the New Moon. So The Crescent will be visible on 18 January 1999 at 14h (UT). May be AID AL-FITRE for my country will be on 19 January 1999. And for sure the visibility of the Crescent in Morocco will be very good on 18 January 1999 between 17h42m and 18h40m. For the Saudi Arabia the Crescent will not be visible before 18 January 1999.

For more details, please find below some data about the Moon and the Sun ( Times are in Universal Time):-

• 15 January 1999
  • Sun: Rise (7h31m), Transit (12h36m), Set (17h40m).
  • Moon: Waning crescent, 27 days old, Rise (5h29m), Transit (10h45m), Set (16h00m).
• 16 January 1999
  • Sun: Rise (7h32m), Transit (12h36m), Set (17h41m).
  • Moon: Waning crescent, 28 days old, Rise (6h21m), Transit (11h36m) , Set (16h51m).
• 17 January 1999
  • Sun: Rise (7h32m), Transit (12h37m), Set (17h42m).
  • Moon: New Moon, 0 days old, Rise (7h11m), Transit (12h28m), Set (17h46m), Moon observed at 17h30m it will have an Illumination of 0% and it will be in Altitude of 2°03'.
• 18 January 1999
  • Sun: Rise (7h32m), Transit (12h37m), Set (17h43m).
  • Moon: Waxing crescent, 1 day old, Rise (7h58m), Transit (13h20m), Set (18h45m), Moon observed at 17h30mn it will have an Illumination of 1% and it will be in Altitude of 12°43', Moon observed at 17h44m it will have an Illumination of 1% and it will be in Altitude of 10°. Thus, the Crescent will be visible at South-West starting from 17h43m (Sunset).

Conclusion: AID AL-FITRE in Morocco may be on 19 January 1999.

Another information about the Crescent: On 19 January 1999 at 8h (UT) the thin Crescent will be in conjunction with Venus. To see this, look at night due the SOUTH-WEST.

AID AL-FITRE MOBAREK WA KOLI AMME WA ANTOUM BI KHAIRE.

Dr. TOUMA Hamid.
National Research Centre (CNCPRST).