Sighting the Crescent from Arizona on Thursday 15 November
There is a lot to say about the claim of sighting the crescent from Tucson (Arizona) on Thursday 15 November 2001. Kindly find below what some experts say.
- Dr. Mohib Durrani
Consultant to ISNA (Islamic Society of North America),
Fiqh, Shura Councils, and
SSNA (Sharia Scholars of North America).
I am encouraged with the open scientific nature of discussions on the ICOP
Consulting Board. May Allah swt continue to Help all of to seek the truth,
where ever it is found, amin.
When there were concerns mentioned in the ICOP and other email lists on
the authencity of the Tucson sighting report I contacted another
individual, also from Tucson AZ, whose name and telephone number was given
to us (members of the National Coordination Committee, USA/Canada). I
should mention that the Hilal reports from all over USA/Canada are
telephoned to ISNA (Islamic Society of North America) Headquarters in
Plainfield Indiana. Then we contact the individuals and obtain first hand
reports making sure that significant information is obtained. I should
also mention that both these reports (one in this email and the other in
the previous email) were given to me by the other individuals. I was not
the one who saw the Hilal (the Hilal was not visible from where I live).
This second individual was also in Tucson Arizona and was about 1-1/2
miles from the first individual (whose report was initially posted and is
also copied at the bottom of this email) and had this to report:
"Sometime after sunset, in the evening of Thu 15 Nov 2001, he saw a very
thin line for the Hilal and its orientation was from around 1 O'Clock to
4 O'Clock to 6 O'Clock positions.
"The Hilal was to the left of the Sun.
"The Hilal was about six (6) finger widths above the mountains.
"Parts of the Hilal started disappearing after about four minutes and
sometimes he could see only to top of the arc of the Hilal."
For a summary of the weather conditions on Thu 15 Nov 2001:
City: Tucson, State: Arizona, Country: USA
The following is a summary from that link:
Time Temp DewPoint Pressure Visibility Wind Speed Conditions
(deg F)(deg F) (in Hg) (miles) (mph)
15:55 73.4 35.6 29.95 10.0 5.8 Partly Cloudy
16:55 71.6 33.8 29.95 10.0 4.6 Partly Cloudy
17:55 69.8 35.6 29.98 10.0 0.0 Clear
18:55 66.2 35.6 29.98 10.0 0.0 Clear
I use the US Naval Observatory Software MICA for my initial calculations
and then I estimate for visibility. My higher precision results for that
city and also for nearby cities is as follows:
CITY LAT LONG SUN MOON AGE ELONG ALT AZM SIGHTING
deg deg Set Set @SnSt deg deg deg
TUCSON--USA 32.2 -110.9 17:22 17:59 17:41 8.9 6.93 -5.6 VERY DIFFICULT$
MAIMI---USA 25.8 -80.2 17:32 18:06 15:51 7.9 6.89 -3.9 VERY DIFFICULT$
SnDIEGO-USA 32.7 -117.1 16:48 17:25 18:07 9.2 7.04 -5.9 VERY DIFFICULT$
SnFRNCS-USA 37.7 -122.4 16:58 17:36 18:17 9.3 6.49 -6.7 IMPOSSIBLE$
The approx results for the other cities is in my webpage:
http://www.columbia.edu/~mnd/20011115-ramdan-1422.html
According to my calculations it was "VERY DIFFICULT$" to see the Hilal
from Tucson. The "$" at the end of the Sighting Estimation indicates that
an Optical Aid would definitely help.
I would comment that since the two places of the two observers were in
mountainous regions the actual "sunset" time could be earlier due to
mountain range providing a higher "horizon". The elevation is from 2,300
feet to 3,500 feet for places around Tucson. The higher elevation would
also decrease the pollution and water vapor in the atmosphere providing
greater atmospheric clarity.
Places on the west coast, for example, California have a huge water mass
towards the western direction (Pacific Ocean) and due to the larger
amounts of water vapor in the atmosphere, their clarity could be less than
that at the drier and higher place of Tucson. This could make the Hilal
not visible from California.
Dr. Mohib Durrani sent another email saying:
I received the following report from the first witness to the Hilal
sighting for Ramadan 1422 AH, The sighting was on the evening of Thu 15
Nov 2001.
Mohib,
Asalam Aleekum,
I received your message and can offer the following information:
In the evening hours of Nov. 15th. the moon sighting occurred
approximately 3 finger widths above the Tucson Mountains in the western
sky, to the south (left) of the point of sunset. The Hilal was from
approximately 2:30 to 7:30 O'clock.
The only time noted during the event is that of 5:28 pm, when the moon
was no longer visible from this location (moonset).
In response to questions raised, I returned to the same location before
sunset on Nov. 16th. to gather additional information. From that
location, the sun set behind the mountains at approximately 5:03pm.
Although the published Sunset time for this date was 5:28pm, according
to the calendar at our local Mosque. (This assumes the horizon and not
the mountains.)
This suggests to me that moonset was approximately 25 minutes after
sunset from that location on the 15th.
Obviously, the Moon sighting on the 16th. was one that even someone with
poor vision could have seen, as the moon was much higher in the sky and
the hilal was much wider. Having spotted the moon from similar
locations for the last 3 years I feel comfortable saying that the hilal
on the 16th. looked like a "second day" moon and not a first. Brother
Nardeen agreed with this when I spoke to him by phone during the
sighting on the 16th. Also, I would add that the track of the moon was
along the same line as in was during the sighting on the 15th.
As for your questions on elevation; Upon searching the internet today I
found the highest published elevation for Tucson to be 2400 ft. (the
sighting location is probably slightly lower than this). The elevation
noted for the Tucson Mountains at
http://emol.org/emol/tour/hiking/hikespots.html is 4687 ft. (other
peaks in the mountain chain may be higher). But in any case it is clear
that the 2200+ elevation difference helps to clarify the time of the
sighting.
With all due respect I would be happy to answer any further questions
that you yourself may have. However, I will no longer be discussing
this with anyone else. I find it most unfortunate that so many would
expend so much negative energy trying to discount anyone who is simply
describing what they have seen.
I would suggest to all of those who choose to continue arguing about
this, that they should read the article I told you about on the phone.
It can be seen at
http://islam.org/ramadan/Moonsighting_vs_Moonfighting.shtml
Finally, I want to say to you that I have enjoyed our brief
conversations and as such I will share a few personal thoughts with you.
As an American who continues to suffer much personal grief over the
events of September 11, I must admit that I find it most disheartening
that so many Muslims seem to be more interested in arguing about
anything and everything rather than promoting a spirit of peace and
cooperation, especially during Ramadan. I just refuse to believe that
this is what God intended for humanity and for the religion of Islam.
Asalam Aleekum
Mr. Khalid Shaukat / National Coordinator and Consultant to ISNA, and Islamic Shura Council of North America.
But this Tucson AZ sighting claim asserted that it was seen at sunset with naked eye by one
person. The fact that this moon could not be seen with naked eye there and could not be seen at sunset points out that it was a mistaken claim. This further supported by independent experienced observers in Arizona, Utah, and California when they all reported
non-sighting on clear horizon and they waited there until moonset. This mistaken claim of sighting from Tucson AZ was verified to be authentic by Dr. Mohib
Durrani, another consultant to Shura Council. Although I tried to point out the flaws in this claim and did not accept it to be authentic, Shura Council made their decision.
Mr. Shaukat added in another Email:
This is a poor and bogus analysis. The claim of sighting was made at sunset, which is not
possible. This was a mistaken claim of sighting.
The explanation is there on my web site: http://moonsighting.com/shuraRamadan.html
Shura Council went against my opinion, and I did not accept that lone sighting claim, but its
announcement had to be made on my web site, as thousand of muslims were waiting to see Shura Council's announcement on my web site. So, I put the announcement on my web site.
Dr. Omar Afzal / Chairman Committee for Crescent Observation Intl
Committee for Crescent Observation Intl. has decided that Ramadan in the USA/Canada MUST
BEGIN on Sat. Nov. 17 2001, as the observers especially in Arizona, and southern
California confirmed that NO MOON was SEEN on a clear sky at all those four locations. Each observation team consisted of 15-25 people and are watching the moon for years.
ISNA's claim that Hilal was sighted in Tuscon Arizona on the evening of Thu 15 Nov 2001 is
spurious. If it was really seen in TUSCON.then IT MUST BE SEEN in BULLET KINGMAN and
MANHATTAN BEACH must have been seen.
N.B A group of 8 reliable Muslims in Tuscon also looked for the moon
Thursday evening from the same place, and they DID NOT SEE any.
It confirms that TUSCON sighting is spurious.
Mr. Zaheer Uddin / Hilal Coordinator for ICNA / Center for American Muslim Research and Information (CAMRI).
SHOCKING AND UNBELIEVABLE!
But they did it again!
It was impossible to see crescent last night (Nov. 15) in North America even with telescope. Claim and "authentication" of sighting of
crescent last night is as seeing sun at midnight.
Our brothers Dr. Muhib Durrani and Dr. Khalid Shaukat are very good friends of mine but this time they are wrong. We have our own teams
of experienced brothers in Arizona and west to it in California and each team reported of non-sighting. Moreover, Arizona was NOT in the
visibility curve.
ISNA has done these kind of mistakes in the past and they did it again. Inna Lillahe wa Inna Ilehe Raje'oon.
Dr. Monzur Ahmed / The owner of the software Moon Calculator.
As far as I can gather from Mohib Durrani's emails...
- sighting was claimed by two persons
- both were naked eye (without any optical aid)
- hilal left of sun in both cases
- exact times of sighting not mentioned
- moon altitude: 6 fingerbreaths above mountains in one case, 3-4 fingerbreaths in other
case
- crescent orientation : 1 'o clock c/w to 6 'o clock in one case; 2-30 c/w to 7 o' clock
in other
Using all well known crescent-sighting criteria, a NAKED EYE SIGHTING would have been
impossible from Tucson on 15 Nov 2001. For example, if one uses Yallop's criterion applied
"best time" (the most optimistic form of the criterion) and if we say that Tucson is at an
elevation of 1000 metres, we get...
_______________________________________________________________________________
_ TUCSON 32:10N 110:53W TZ:-7.0 Ht:1000m JD:2452228.5 Topo Refrac ON _
_ Mag Dec: 11.438 11d 26m 19s Date: Thu 15 Nov 2001 _
_ Delta T (TD-UT): 0h 01m 06s approx Time: 13h 15m 41s LT _
_ Apparent Sunrise: 6h 47m 36s LT Apparent Sunset: 17h 28m 29s LT _
_------------------------------------2 of 4-----------------------------------_
_ AT APPARENT SUNSET> _
_ New Moon Visibility (Yallop/BT,q-0.221)D: Visible with optical aid only _
_ Moon Alt: 5.291 5d 17m 27s Moon Azi: 243.370 243d 22m 11s _
_ Sun Alt: -1.147 -1d 08m 48s Sun Azi: 248.983 248d 58m 58s _
_ Rel Alt: 6.437 6d 26m 15s Rel Azi: -5.613 -5d 36m 47s _
_ Elongation: 8.964 8d 57m 50s Moon Age: 17.81h 0D 17H 48M _
_ Phase:0.0072 Mag: -4.94 Width:0.19m Semi-Diam:0.265 Distance:377001.40km _
_-----------------------------------------------------------------------------_
_ Moon Rise: 7h 06m 48s LT Azimuth: 109d 36m 39s _
_ Moon Set: 18h 05m 36s LT Azimuth: 248d 13m 52s _
_ Sunrise-Moonrise: 0h 19m 12s Sunset-Moonset: 0h 37m 07s _
_-----------------------------------------------------------------------------_
_ New Moon: 15 Nov 2001 JDE: 2452228.7786 6h 41m 07s TD _
_ Full Moon: 30 Nov 2001 JDE: 2452244.3682 20h 50m 09s TD _
_ Perigee: 11 Nov 2001 JDE: 2452225.2348 17h 38m 04s TD _
_ Apogee: 23 Nov 2001 JDE: 2452237.1578 15h 47m 15s TD _
_-----------------------------------------------------------------------------_
_ENTER:More [H]elp +/-:?Month DEL/INS:?Day END/HOME:?Hr DN/UP:?Min SPACE:Menu _
_______________________________________________________________________________
[ data from MoonCalc 6.0, http://www.starlight.demon.co.uk/mooncalc ]
The q parameter is -0.221 meaning that it definitely falls into "sighting only with optical
aid" category. In other words, none of the NAKED EYE crescent sightings documented in the
astronomical literature remotely approaches this "sighting" in the degree of difficulty.
It is highly likely that these were FALSE POSITIVE sightings from Tucson (ie honest
mistakes). We know from the various Moonwatch studies, that false positive sightings can
occur in about 15% of cases.
Mr. Jim Stamm / Expert in crescent observations, lives in Tucson, and he holds the World youngest crescent which was seen by optical aid on 20 January 1996.
The visibility and conditions of the "New" Moon from Tucson,
AZ on 15 Nov 2001:
Sunset = 00:23 (UT - Nov 16)
Age at sunset = 17:43
Moonset = 01:01
Elongation = 8.9 degrees
Percent Lit = 0.72
Altitude at sunset = 6.1 degrees
I have attempted to observe similar Moons without visual aid, but have
never succeeded. I have not found a successful naked eye observation in
the literature either. I have even failed to sight some similar moons
with optical aid. Therefore I would be extremely skeptical of any claim
that the New Moon of 15 Nov 2001 was sighted by naked eye from Tucson, AZ.
Mr. Stamm added in another email:-
Since the first witness to the Hilal sighting for Ramadan 1422 AH (15 Nov
2001) has indicated that he would not discuss his observation with anyone
except Mohib N. Durrani any longer, I have done some calculations based
on what information has been published so far:
The location of the observation was reported in the Arizona Daily Star as
"from Ina Road, west of I-10, in a flat area." The first intersection
west of I-10 that is shown on the Jaynes quadrangle of the USGS
topographic map is 0.6 km west of the interstate. Its coordinates are
111° 04.32' W; 32° 20.25' N. Elevation above sea level is 665.7 meters.
Times are local (MST). The calculations are relatively valid for any
place that is within one kilometer east or west of the location.
15 Nov 2001:
Sunset (upper limb) was at 5:10 p.m. over the Tucson Mountains, which are
about 2 degrees above the theoretical horizon. Azimuth = 246.4 degrees.
Hilal's altitude above the horizon (mountains) was 6.3 degrees. Azimuth
= 240.7 degrees.
Hilal set at 5:45 p.m. Azimuth = 245.5 degrees
16 Nov 2001:
Sunset = 5:10 Azimuth = 246.2
Hilal altitude = 13.4 Azimuth = 229.9
Hilal set = 6:28 Azimuth = 241.5
There are a number of inconsistencies with the reported data. An
interview would be required to determine if the inconsistencies are the
result of a defective observation (observing a false crescent), defective
reporting, or a defect in my location assumption.
Some of the reported data that are inconsistant with the calculated data:
- It was 5:20 p.m. when Hilal was at "3 fingers" (4.5 degrees?)
altitude. The Sun was 2 degrees below the horizon. Too bright to see Hilal?
- Moonset on 15 Nov was reported as 5:28; calculation gives 5:45.
- The time of sunset on the 16th was reported as 5:03; calculated as
5:10.
- 16 Nov track was 4 deg. south of 15 Nov track, not "along the same
line."
- The largest elevation difference that I found was 261 m.
This is 855 ft., not "...2200+ elevation difference..."
I have seen false crescents many times myself, some through the
telescope. It remains a possibility that a false crescent was
observered. Perhaps Dr. Durrani, may be able to persuade the witness to
provide me with some more details.
Please visit these sites to know the needed preparations to achieve a successful crescent sighting!
AUASS Official Statement
Kindly click here to read the original AUASS statement.
Kindly click here to read the AUASS statement translated into English by Germany ICOP member, Mr. Gerhard Kaufmann.
18 October is the First of Sha'ban: A Signed Statement
During the Second Islamic Astronomical Conference (29-31 October 2001) which was held in Amman / Jordan, the participants signed on an official paper, which states that the beginning of Sha'ban had to be on Thursday 18 October 2001. The paper was signed by 18 participants, some of which are:-
- A representative from the official committee which prepares the Official Saudi Calendar "Ummal Qurah" (Dr. Zaki Mustafa, King Abdul-Azeez City for Science and Technology).
- A representative from the official committee which prepares the official Turkish Calendar (Mr. Cevdet Ergun, Director of Islamic Calendar Department).
- A representative from the official committee which prepares the official Algerian Calendar (Dr. Nassim Seghouani, Algiers Observatory).
- A representative from the official committee which prepares the official Jordanian Calendar (Mr. Mohammad Odeh, Member of the Jordanian Mawaqeet Committee).
Although the above mentioned persons who prepare the official calendars in their countries agreed that Thursday 18 October 2001 is the first of Sha'ban 1422 AH, some countries had started Sha'ban on Wednesday 17 October 2001! Such as Saudi, Jordan, Kuwait, ...etc.
Highly notice that according to the correct beginning of Sha'ban (i.e. Thursday 18 October), the 29th of Sha'ban IS Thursday 15 November 2001, and Sha'ban must be 30 days everywhere in the world, and thus the beginning of Ramadan must be on Saturday 17 November 2001 in all
countries.
Kindly click here to view the official signed statement.
Page 1 | Page 2
Ramadan Begins on 17 Nov. According to The Iraqi Calculations
Ramadan Begins on 17 Nov. According to The Lebanese Calculations
The below announcement is taken from a publication issued by the Lebanese Astronomical Society.
Ramadan Begins on 17 Nov. According to The Iraqi Calculations
The below announcement is taken from a book entitled The Hejric Calendar prepared in An-Najaf city in Iraq.
Saudi and Jordan Correct the Beginning of Sha'ban!
Finally Saudi and Jordan realized that their beginning of Sha'ban (Wednesday 17 October 2001) is wrong. Thus, both Saudi and Jordan ask the people to look for the crescent of Ramadan on Thursday 15 November 2001. Kindly find below the official Saudi statement, in which Saudi clearly says that no one saw the crescent of Sha'ban on Tuesday 16 October 2001.
This statement appeared in Al-Riyadh Saudi Newspaper on Monday 12 November 2001.
The Accuracy of The Astronomical Calculations
To know about the accuracy of the astronomical calculations, then please click here